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Kelvin Berryman
Director, Natural Hazards Research Platform, GNS Science
SSA/EERI 2013 William B. Joyner Memorial Lecturer
Present position: Director, Natural Hazards Research Platform, GNS
Science
Employment history: NZ Geological Survey 1974-1990, DSIR Geology
& Geophysics 1990-1992, GNS Science 1992- present
Degrees: BSc 1974; BSc (Hons) 1977; PhD 1990, Victoria University
of Wellington
1. Science to Practice: Seismic safety for hydro-electric energy sector – original Clyde
Dam study (1980-1983) plus review 2002-present, all Waitaki River facilities (1997-
2004), Clutha River (1983-1986), Waikato River power stations (1997-2003), Matahina
Dam (1995-2000); National tsunami risk study (2005); Canterbury earthquakes (2010-
present); >200 GNS client reports; earthquake hazard studies from site specific to
regions in New Zealand (1975-present), Fiji (1978), Australia (1999-2002), Japan (2002-
present), Iran (2007).
2. Service to Science and Community: Editorial boards of academic journals – Geology
(1990-1992), NZ Journal of Geology & Geophysics (1997-2001) & Bulletin of
Seismological Society of America (2009-present); Vice-president neotectonics commission
of INQUA (1981-1986); NZ representative to IGCP projects 206 (1987-1992) and 274
(1988-1992); co-leader project II-5 of international lithosphere programme 2000-2004;
PhD supervisor Victoria University 2002-2005 (Kate Clark née Wilson), FRST post-doc
mentor to four scholars 1992-2007 (Andrew Nicol, Robert Langridge, Nicola Litchfield, and
Andrew Wells); Project leader for Global Earthquake Model 2010-2013; Science advisor to
Canterbury Earthquake Recovery Authority 2011-present; PBRF Physical Sciences panel
2003, 2006, 2009, vice-chair 2012.
3. Awards: Otto Glogau Award of NZ Society Earthquake Engineering 1993 & 2000, Royal
Society of NZ Medal 2000, Royal Society of NZ Marsden Award 2007, Queens Service
Order 2011 for services to science and Canterbury earthquake recovery, Fellow of NZ
Society Earthquake Engineering 2012.
4. Membership of Professional Societies
•
New Zealand Geosciences Society
•
New Zealand National Society for Earthquake Engineering
•
American Geophysical Union
•
Seismological Society of America
•
New Zealand Institute of Directors
5. Contribution to Science: 114 peer reviewed journal articles & book chapters (H
citation index = 30; Google Scholar July 2012). Current research specialities include:
•
Earthquake geology studies of the Alpine fault.
•
Interpreting coastal geomorphology and deposits in terms of past earthquake
activity.
•
Natural hazard and risk studies from site specific to national scale.
The context and impacts of the Canterbury earthquake sequence of 2010-2011
Abstract
The Canterbury earthquake sequence, which began with the Mw 7.1 Darfield earthquake
on 4 September 2010, has continued to the present, and represents the largest socio-
economic issue for New Zealand since World War II. The proximal, very energetic, shallow
earthquakes have resulted in major economic impacts on the second largest city in New.
However, because there is >80% insurance penetration into the New Zealand residential
and commercial market, insurers and reinsurers have borne the brunt of the c. NZ$30
billion total economic losses. Government will spend c. NZ$6-8 billion of this. The
economic impacts correspond to approximately 15% of GDP.
Much of the damage in Christchurch has resulted from widespread ground deformation
due to liquefaction and lateral spreading, which has affected horizontal infrastructure, and
residential and commercial buildings alike. A large part of the central business district has
been demolished because of much-greater-than-code ground shaking, lateral spread in
foundations, a building stock with known deficiencies, and because of the way that
insurance cover was written.
Despite the widespread damage to the central and eastern parts of Christchurch the long
term economic prognosis is excellent. Businesses in the region have proven to be very
flexible and adaptable, and as many as 95% of pre-quake businesses continue to operate.
The agricultural hinterland of Christchurch is highly productive, and although the port has
been damaged its throughput has increased by approximately 50% since September
2010. The tourism sector has been badly impacted with hotel beds down by 75%,
although hotel rebuilding is now underway.
Lessons for New Zealanders and the international community include factoring rare events
into risk management, being aware of accumulation risk, actioning earthquake prone
building policy, and keeping risk transfer options, such as insurance, current even in quiet
periods with few natural hazard events.
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